Ace Breaking News – A warm welcome for fine weather conditions this week

David Oliver is a Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist. He said: “Despite media speculation, next week’s conditions are likely to fall just outside of official Met Office heatwave thresholds. However, this shouldn’t lead to any disappointment as many can anticipate a very fine spell of weather with temperatures reaching 27°C during the middle of the week.” 

The highest recorded April temperature was way back in 1949 when Camden Square in London recorded 29.4°C on 16 April. Met Office Chief Forecaster Matthew Lehnert said: “We are not expecting the April UK temperature record to be broken, but some locations may nudge local records.  

“Often warm spells are driven by warmer air arriving from further south, but the origins of next week’s air are from Scandinavia and central Europe. This air mass will be warmed by compression as the high pressure begins to build, and this warmth will be boosted by daytime heating from the April sun.” 

What is the definition of a UK heatwave? 

A UK heatwave threshold is met when a location records a period of at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold. The threshold varies by UK county, see the UK temperature threshold map below.  

The temperature in southern England could hit 27C (81F) later this week, making it the highest temperature recorded in April since 2018.

Warmth and sunshine will develop widely across most areas of the UK as high pressure gradually builds.

Lack of rainfall, however, will again raise concerns about potential wildfires.

The last time the temperature rose to 27C in April was in 2018 in Cambridge.

How widespread will the warmth be?

Runners of the London and Manchester marathons will likely tell you that it was already warm on Sunday, with the those pounding the streets of the capital experiencing the fourth-warmest London Marathon in its history.

The week begins with temperatures across England and Wales already hitting 19-24C, with much of Scotland and Northern Ireland around 16-19C under slightly cloudier conditions. Some patchy rain likely in north-west Scotland, too.

However, as sunny skies develop more widely, the combination of strong sunshine and light winds will help temperatures to peak on either Wednesday or Thursday, and be the highest of the year so far in each of the four nations.

23C is the expected high in parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland, 25C in Wales and 27C in England.

London, the Home Counties and Cambridgeshire are the areas expected to record the warmest of the conditions.

With sea temperatures around the UK still relatively low at the moment, coastal areas where sea breezes develop will feel cooler, but UV levels will remain high.

Is this a heatwave?

Whilst the upcoming spell of warmth is significant, with a number of areas seeing temperatures 10 degrees above what we’d usually expect, it is not technically going to be a heatwave in meteorological terms. 

For this, we would need to see at least three consecutive days at or above the “heatwave threshold” which varies depending on where you are in the UK.

Do be prepared for high levels of UV, as the sun is as strong this time of year as it is in August.

If you’re a hay fever sufferer, another feature of the warm and sunny weather will be an increase in pollen levels. 

How unsual is the warmth?

While this will be the warmest weather of the year so far and the warmest since early September, April can bring big swings in temperature and it is not unusual to see this type of hot spell during spring. 

The highest April temperature ever recorded is 29.4C which was reached in London on 16 April 1949.

As our climate continues to warm though, we expect this type of spring heat to occur more often. Recent analysis found that spring is the fastest-warming season in the United Kingdom.

Concerns surround the lack of rain

Despite some occasional downpours, spring has been incredibly dry so far this year for a number of areas.

In a large swathe of central southern England many have seen only around a fifth of the rainfall they would normally expect to receive since the start of March. 

For inland areas of North Yorkshire there has been close to a quarter of the normal rainfall which has had an impact on river levels.

According to the latest rainfall and river flow summary by the Environment Agency, river levels quite widely across the north-eastern quarter of England are classed as “notably low” or “exceptionally low”.

The ongoing dry conditions also mean that fire services across the UK will be on high alert for further wildfires.

A study of satellite data by the BBC shows that the area of the UK burnt by wildfires so far this year is already higher than the total for any year in more than a decade.

Another potential drawback to the warm, sunny and calm conditions will be the build up of pollutants in the atmosphere. Defra and Met Office air pollution forecasts for the week shows moderate pollution levels quite widely across the UK by Wednesday, especially for England and Wales.

How long will it last?

With the May Bank Holiday on the horizon I think you may know the answer to this one.

Later in the week, as high pressure gradually diminishes a shift in wind direction to the north or north-west will bring cooler air southwards for the start of the weekend.

However, while temperatures will drop for all, they will still remain at or above average for the time of the year. The start of the weekend looks dry, but there are hints that low pressure could bring showers and cooler conditions by the end of the long weekend.

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