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#AceNewsDesk – Recession looms as UK economy starts to shrink By Michael Race: Business reporter, BBC News

The UK appears to be heading into recession after the latest official figures showed the economy shrank between July and September.

The economy contracted by 0.2% during the three months as soaring prices hit businesses and households.

A country is in recession when its economy shrinks for two three-month periods in a row. The UK is expected to be in one by the end of the year.

The Bank of England has forecast a “very challenging” two-year recession.

A recession has been widely expected in the UK due to the prices of goods such as food, fuel and energy soaring, which is down to several factors, including the war in Ukraine.

Higher prices for goods has led to many households facing hardship and cutting back on spending, which has started to drag on the economy.

• What is a recession and how could it affect me?
• Faisal Islam: Why is the UK struggling more than any other big country?
• Five things we now know about the UK economy 

When a country is in recession, it’s a sign that its economy is doing badly.

During recessions, companies typically make less money and the number of people unemployed rises. Graduates and school leavers also find it harder to get their first job.

This means the government receives less money in tax to use on public services such as health and education.

The Bank of England expects the UK recession to be the longest since records began in the 1920s and said unemployment will almost double.

‘World Cup and Christmas key’

Sam Burrows, managing director of Bristol Beer Factory, told the BBC he has been weighing up how much of his soaring business costs can be passed on to customers in recent months.

“We can’t price consumers out. We need people in pubs eating, drinking and enjoying the hospitality sector, so it’s a balancing act for me,” he said.

Mr Burrows said he wanted to invest and expand his business but was having to factor in the current economic climate.

However, he said the World Cup and Christmas were coming at the right time.

“A bit of national pride and some positive energy with a good performance in the World Cup, Christmas spending, it’s all going to help hospitality,” he added.

‘Tough road ahead’

Countries all around the world are experiencing high price rises, but the UK economy is performing the worst compared to other major nations, and is smaller than it was before the Covid pandemic.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS), which published the economic growth figures, said business investment had dropped in the three months to September and also remained below its pre-pandemic levels.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said he was “under no illusion that there is a tough road ahead” as he warned “extremely difficult decisions to restore confidence and economic stability” would be required.

Mr Hunt is set to unveil his tax and spending plans next week in the Autumn Statement, which comes as households are being squeezed by the worst cost-of-living crisis since the 1950s.

The performance of the economy is measured by the value of all the goods and services produced by the UK. This number is known as the gross domestic product (GDP).

The fall in GDP in the three months to September was driven by a decline in manufacturing, which was seen “across most industries”, the ONS said.

The ONS publishes its estimate of GDP and does sometimes revise it upwards or downwards. For example, it initially estimated that the economy shrank by 0.3% in August, but later revised that and said it shrank by 0.1%.

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