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#AceNewsRoom With ‘Kindness & Wisdom’ Oct.19, 2022 @acenewsservices

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#AceNewsDesk – Opinion & Analysis: 🛢 Moscow’s big miscalculation on energy warfare — Sergey Vakulenko, energy analyst (RE:Russia):

Summarizing the “interim results” of the energy war between Russia and the West, Vakulenko identifies four main takeaways: (1) Europe managed to prepare for the coming winter without Russian gas by stockpiling and securing alternate (more expensive) alternative sources, (2) this crisis will last several years as international markets readjust, (3) the energy crisis will escalate into a global economic recession, and (4) Moscow fundamentally miscalculated by expecting the West to prefer a political deal with Russia to a major energy and economic crisis.

Pending legal action by Naftogaz against Gazprom will likely lead to future Russian sanctions against Ukraine’s largest national oil and gas company, jeopardizing continued gas transit through Ukraine.

Additionally, the Dutch authorities have revoked the license of the company that operates the TurkStream pipeline, endangering another major supply route and further closing off the European energy market to Russia. Europe, meanwhile, is paying heavily to maintain an energy supply without Russian imports, but the crisis appears to have strengthened continental integration more than eroded it. Next winter will be harder for Europe, however, because new supply routes and production schemes won’t settle in immediately.

Several European energy companies will need bailouts eventually.

The ensuing global recession will hit advanced economies even where the service sector dominates because so much of that activity supports manufacturing (which is directly vulnerable in the energy crisis). Cascading problems could endanger the world’s food supply, too.

The scale of this instability is what Moscow thought would pressure the West into a political settlement in Ukraine, but Russia did not manage to capitalize on Europe’s energy dependence. The Kremlin’s logic here made sense: its “energy lever” in Europe was only weakening, creating urgency. But a failure is a failure.

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