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#AceNewsRoom With ‘Kindness & Wisdom’ May.21, 2022 @acebreakingnews

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#AceBreakingNews – Which key seats should I be watching in ‘battleground Queensland’ this federal election?The Sunshine State was a major factor in delivering the Morrison miracle in 2019 — a blue tide across Queensland saw the LNP win 23 seats out of 30……………..Labor holds just six seats in the state and not a single one outside the south-east corner……………..The ALP will be hoping to reverse some of its losses last time around, while the Coalition will be keen to keep its grip on as many seats as possible…………Glenn Kefford from the School of Political Science and International Studies at the University of Queensland said the electoral battleground of Queensland was crucial to the overall result……………Queensland is always critical. It is the jewel in the crown of the Coalition and any seats that the government loses in Queensland is going to make it difficult for them to retain power,” he said…………….Dr Kefford said the race has tightened in the days out from the election — and both leaders will be nervous about their fortunes………………So which seats should we be watching? Here’s a quick guide on the key seats to watch in Queensland this federal election.

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Brisbane: The inner-city marginal seat of Brisbane has been billed as one of the most important in this election: Dr Kefford pointed to the inner-city triumvirate of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan as the seats to watch……………….All three are held by the major parties — Brisbane by the LNP’s Trevor Evans, Ryan by the LNP’s Julian Simmonds, and Griffith by Labor’s Terri Butler — but are facing an outsize challenge from Greens candidates……………The Greens and their preferences could have a major say………………My sense is that Labor will likely pick up Brisbane,” Dr Kefford said………………..Brisbane, held by a marginal 4.9 per cent, covers the city’s CBD and inner-city suburbs on the riverside and northside.

Flynn: Outside the south-east corner, the central Queensland seat of Flynn has attracted attention during the campaign: The LNP’s retiring member Ken O’Dowd holds the seat on a safe margin of 8.7 per cent.

Griffith: The marginal Labor seat of Griffith has been held by Labor’s Terri Butler since the 2014 by-election on a margin of 2.9 per cent.………….Dr Kefford said he backed Labor to retain the seat………..I that it is likely that Butler will be returned and that despite all of the work that the Greens have been doing and a likely increase in their primary, I think Labor’s primary is going to increase as well,” he said.

Hinkler: The entry of wildcard candidate, Jack Dempsey in the very safe LNP seat of Hinkler has also made it an interesting contest………Political scientist with Griffith University Anne Tiernan was doubtful of Mr Dempsey’s chances in the race……….I’m not sure that he’ll get there in Hinkler but it certainly has made it a contest with [LNP incumbent] Keith Pitt,” Professor Tiernan said………..Mr Pitt, the Minister for Resources and Water, holds the seat on a generous margin of 14.5 per cent.

Leichhardt: The sprawling marginal seat of Leichhardt stretches from Cairns up to Cape York in Far North Queensland: This federal electorate, which has been held by the LNP’s Warren Entsch since 2010, has garnered plenty of attention during the campaign, with climate change, cost of living and damage to tourism front of mind for voters: The LNP holds the seat on a 4.2 per cent margin.

Lilley: Professor Tiernan said the ultra-marginal seat of Lilley was no longer likely to change hands: The prediction comes after LNP candidate Vivian Lobo’s campaign was disrupted by allegations he provided false information to the Australian Electoral Commission……………..They’ve just had candidate trouble in Lilley which is disappointing for [the LNP’s] campaign and has sort of left [Labor incumbent] Anika Wellsprobably pretty safe in that seat I think,” Professor Tiernan said……………………Labor holds the seat on a margin of 0.6 per cent.

Longman: Professor Tiernan said another marginal seat to watch is the swinging seat of Longman, which includes the Sunshine Coast and Caboolture. …………..The other one that everyone’s had their eye on is Longman — it’s really, really hard to know,” she said……………….The mainly urban electorate, which sits on a margin of 3.3 per cent, has been held by the LNP’s Terry Young since 2019…………….Professor Tiernan said preference flows from minor parties such as the United Australian Party will be decisive.………………..I think Longman is one that Labor would really hope to pick up, and I think the fragmentation of the vote makes it very difficult to see which way that’s going to come out and I don’t think anybody knows.”

Ryan: The blue-ribbon seat of Ryan, stretching west of Brisbane’s CBD, is ostensibly safe on a margin of 6.0 per cent — but it was one of the only LNP seats where the vote slipped in 2019……………..The seat is currently held by the LNP’s Julian Simmonds………………..Dr Kefford said the electoral race in Ryan was “a bit of a cliff hanger”………….I think Ryan is a really difficult seat to call because I think we are going to see both Labor and the Greens primary vote increase and the LNP primary to decrease,” Dr Kefford said………………….That is a really tough electorate to call. I think Julian Simmonds would be feeling quite nervous.”

The Senate: There are several high-profile candidates who are vying for a Queensland Senate seat: While there’s six seats up for election, it’s generally understood that only three are in play — with the LNP certain to retain two and Labor certain to retain one: ……………One Nation leader and current Senator Pauline Hanson, Clive Palmer from the United Australia Party and former Queensland premier Campbell Newman for the Liberal Democrats all have high profiles in the state: ………………….LNP frontbencher Amanda Stoker is fighting to retain her seat, while Labor will also be hoping to retain Anthony Chisholm’s seat, with the Greens’ Penny Allman-Payne also targeting left votes…………………..Counting for the Senate always takes longer than the House of Representatives, and it could take weeks to finalise the result.

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