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The Real Russia. Today. The Kremlin’s confidence in Ukraine rebounds, as humanitarian fears mount in the Donbas: Friday, May 27, 2022

In today’s newsletter:

• The Kremlin’s confidence returns
• Russia’s war machine in the Donbas rolls through Lyman
• After returning home from captivity in Ukraine, a Russian soldier says he plans to go back to the frontlines
• Theater critic Anton Khitrov reviews “Bye, Dad” by Alexander Kudryashov
• Alexey Lakhov’s one-man war against St. Petersburg’s invasion-mania

Major recent events in Russia and Ukraine

Sources tell Meduza that the Kremlin is considering another assault on Kyiv and planning victory in Ukraine by the fall(5-min read)

Despite failing to capture Kyiv at the outset of the war, the Kremlin is reportedly considering a second assault on Ukraine’s capital, as Russian troops appear to be on the verge of seizing the entire Donbas region. Sources tell Meduza that advances in the east and expectations that Moscow can win a war of attrition against Kyiv and its Western allies have revived hopes in the Putin administration that a full-scale victory is possible in Ukraine before the end of the year.

Relatives fear for Lyman’s remaining residents as Russia claims control of strategic Donbas hub (11-min read)

For several days now, Russian forces have been trying to capture Lyman — a strategic railway hub in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. Russia is seeking to gain a foothold in Lyman in the hopes of pushing its offensive towards the cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Russian troops began storming Lyman on May 24, and Denis Pushilin — the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) — claimed full control of the town on the morning of May 27. In turn, Ukrainian officials said that Lyman is “mostly controlled” by Russian troops and fighting is ongoing. To find out what life is like for Lyman’s remaining residents, Meduza spoke to their relatives who left the town before it came under occupation.

A contract soldier captured by Ukrainian troops and traded back to Russia says he plans to return to the frontlines (5-min read)

Twenty-four-year-old Dmitry Paramoshkin signed a contract with the Russian army in 2020, near the end of his conscription term. “It just sort of happened that way. They said there’d be exercises, [parachute] jumps, we’d ride around, and do that kind of stuff. So, I went ahead and did it,” he told the news website Fontanka. On February 25, 2022, Dmitry and his fellow soldiers were told that they were headed to Crimea to join planned military drills. When they arrived, they were given new orders: go to Kherson and then Mykolaiv. Paramoshkin was later captured after invading Ukraine, held prisoner for several weeks, and returned home to St. Petersburg in a prisoner exchange. Now he says he plans to return to the fight, confident that Russia will prevail.

Alexander Kudryashov’s play about his father (a veteran of the Second Chechen War) is also a portrait of Russian masculinity (6-min read)

Moscow’s Alexander Kudryashov Theater Company is an independent troupe staging low-cost plays for intimate audiences. Inside the company, Alexander Kudryashov plays the “roles” of playwright, director, and actor. His new play, “Bye, Dad”, tells the story of his late father, a veteran of the Second Chechen War. And it’s a rare example of theater that feels appropriate in wartime. It’s also a remarkably candid work, even though the author himself avoids speaking of his feelings. Theater critic Anton Khitrov shares his thoughts about the play.

The St. Petersburg resident on a personal mission to get pro-war symbols removed from the city (3-min read)

St. Petersburg, April 2022: Marina Mamontova

The Real Russia. Today. Alarm bells in the Donbas, Ukraine’s amazing railroads, and the criminalization of dissent: Published: Thursday, May 26, 2022

In today’s newsletter:

• Latest news
• Officials in Kyiv sound the alarm over Russian advances in the Donbas
• An interview with the head of Ukrainian Railways
• How Russia’s state investigators build cases against anti-war activists
• Lawmakers target Russia’s ‘enemies’ on and off the battlefield

Major recent events in Russia and Ukraine

• 🎁 Washington readies the big guns: The Biden administration plans to send more advanced, longer-range rocket systems to Ukraine, multiple state officials told CNN. The White House has reportedly delayed this decision due to concerns raised within the National Security Council that Ukraine “could use the systems to carry out offensive attacks inside Russia.”
• 🗳️ Renewed UNSC stalemate: On Thursday, China and Russia vetoeda U.S.-led push in the U.N. Security Council to impose more sanctions on North Korea over its renewed ballistic missile launches. This was the first time in 16 years that the Security Council declined to escalate sanctions against Pyongyang for its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.
• 💰 Money makes the world go ‘round: “Government officials familiar with the matter” told The Associated Press that “Western allies are considering whether to allow Russian oligarchs to buy their way out of sanctions” and “use the money to rebuild Ukraine.” Canadian Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland proposed the idea at a G-7 finance ministers’ meeting in Germany last week.
• ⚖️ Prison for another Ukrainian deserter: A court in Kyiv sentenced soldier Mikhail Kazarenko to 14 years in prison for treason and desertion. Stationed in Crimea with Ukraine’s Navy when Russia annexed the peninsula, Kazarenko then joined the Russian Coast Guard. On March 3, 2022, he was captured in Ukraine’s Mykolaiv region together with fellow soldiers Dmitry Shishkanov and Igor Rudenko, who were recently sentenced to 14 and 15 years in prison, respectively, also for treason and desertion.
• 🚫 A government censor and proud of it: On Thursday, Andrey Lipov, the head of Russia’s federal censor, announced that his agency has overseen the deletion of 38,000 messages advocating antiwar protests since the start of Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine. Lipov also claimed to have removed “more than 117,000 fakes about the essence of the conflict, about military actions, and troop losses” and blocked “1,177 resources with Ukrainian nationalist propaganda with a total audience of 202 million users.” Roskomnadzor’s director also accused Western nations of spending “billions of rubles” to flood the Internet with “Ukrainian nationalist propaganda” at the start of the war.
• 💐 Oopsie doopsie: State Duma deputy Defense Committee Chairman Vladimir Shamanov said in an interview released on May 22 that one of the biggest early mistakes of Russia’s “special military operation” was the expectation that Ukrainians would welcome Russian invaders “with flowers.” The retired colonel general then added, “Today, it seems we’ve already overcome this factor, but there’s still a lot to be done.”

🪖 Alarming comments by Ukrainian officials suggest problems for Kyiv in the Donbas, where Russian troops seek a ‘new Mariupol’ (5-min read)

Since mid-April, Russia has focused its invasion of Ukraine on capturing the eastern region known as the Donbas. According to military reports, the fighting here has been largely positional battles without significant advancements by either side. Both Russia and Ukraine have built up their forces, regrouped, and continued artillery fire. In the last week, however, statements by officials in Kyiv have become more alarming, as if Ukraine’s leadership is preparing the nation for a major defeat: the loss of Severodonetsk (one of the last big cities in the region still under Ukrainian control) and a “new Mariupol.”

🚆 ‘We treat the Russian dead better than they treat living Ukrainians’: An interview with the head of Ukrainian Railways, the backbone of Ukraine’s evacuation efforts (15-min read)

Russian soldiers’ bodies being loaded into a refrigerator car. Kyiv, May 13, 2022

Efrem Lukatsky / AP / Scanpix / LETA

Before Russia launched its full-scale war against Ukraine, Ukraine’s state railroad company, Ukrainian Railways, was often criticized for being ineffective and suspected of corruption. Now, Ukrainian Railways is providing shelter for millions of refugees, transporting foreign leaders on official visits to Kyiv, and delivering humanitarian and military cargo to towns throughout Ukraine. Even Russian propagandists have marveled at the efficiency with which the company has mobilized its railroads. Meduza spoke to Ukrainian Railways head Oleksandr Kamyshin about the changes the company has made since the start of the war, the fight against Russian collaborators in the company, and the task of storing Russian soldiers’ bodies in refrigerator cars.

⚖️ Condemning the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine is a criminal offense in Russia. Here’s how investigators are building their cases. (23-min read)

Days after launching its full-fledged invasion of Ukraine, Russia outlawed the spread of “knowingly false information” about the country’s armed forces. The new law, which came into force on March 4, carries punishments of up to 15 years in prison — and it has so far been used to persecute those who openly condemn Russia’s war against Ukraine. Meduza looks into how state investigators are building criminal cases against anti-war Russians for sharing facts and opinions that stray from the Kremlin line.

⚖️ Lawmakers draft new penalties for assisting Russia’s ‘enemies’ on and off the battlefield (6-min read)

Lawmakers from Russia’s ruling political party, United Russia, have submitted draft legislation to the State Duma that would create two new felony statutes and add stricter penalties to another five criminal offenses already on the books. Clearly but unofficially connected to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the legislative initiative concerns cooperation with foreign organizations and participation in armed hostilities. Here’s how things will change once the law is adopted.

Since the start of the war, St. Petersburg resident Alexey Lakhov has been sending complaints to various government agencies requesting that they remove pro-war symbols from public spaces. St. Petersburg news outlet Bumaga recently published a story about Lakhov and his small acts of protest.

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