GlobalWarming & ClimateChange News Desk – Welcome to their last newsletter of 2023, where we take a look at what happened at COP28 – and set out some goals for 2024.:
Ace Press News From Cutting Room Floor: Published: Dec.20: 2023: Climate Tracker News: TELEGRAM Ace Daily News Link https://t.me/+PuI36tlDsM7GpOJe
For the second year in a row, the Climate Action Tracker’s warming estimates have essentially not changed. Given the worsening climate crisis, we would need to see a gigantic step forward each year.
COP28 agreed to triple renewables and double efficiency by 2030. It has also, for first time, agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. The language agreed has plenty of loopholes that could distract from the needed aim of phasing out fossil fuels completely as quickly as possible, but is a small step forward all the same.
Our global update, released at COP28, shows little has changed since Glasgow COP26 two years ago: our warming projections are virtually the same.
Our estimate for government 2030 targets is up by 0.1°C, not because of any actual target changes, but is largely down to increasing emissions in countries with weak targets. (We take the current level of policy action for our target calculation, if that level is lower than the target itself).
That picture has to change by COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan next year as governments start to come forward with their 2035 targets – which are due, at the latest, by February 2025. But 2035 target setting cannot be viewed as yet another opportunity to kick the can down the road. If this process does not lead to significant strengthening and implementing of 2030 targets, the 1.5°C limit will not be achievable, at least not without a significant overshoot for decades.
In our global update, you’ll find some criteria that we’ve set out for what those NDCs should look like (see page 19 of the pdf).
Ambitious target setting is only the first step. It needs to be followed up by action on the ground. Real action. Making grand announcements has become a trend at recent COPs. Yet few of the sectoral initiatives announced during COP28 will meaningfully contribute to closing the emissions gap. Many of them lack either the ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability needed to really make a difference.
Our rapid assessment of these announcements found that:
- About a quarter of emission reductions overlapped with what had already been announced in Glasgow, and with what governments already need to do to meet their own published NDC targets,
- Around half were actual new announcements that might take the issue forward
- The remaining quarter were simply too vague to be able to quantify, and would require a lot more commitment and detail before they could be taken as a serious step.
READ OUR COP28 INITIATIVES BRIEFING
The Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Pledge will have the greatest impact, if fully implemented, and could close about a third of the gap between current policies and 1.5°C in 2030. However, the announcement at COP had no timelines nor timetables.
The Oil & Gas initiatives were deeply disappointing, focusing as they did largely on production emissions and not on the massive amount of emissions from burning the product produced.
Bill, Niklas and the CAT team
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